December 4, 2019 2

2019 Camera Industry Predictions

2019 Camera Industry Predictions

Hey, this is Scott of Photography Banzai. Today I’m
gonna do a 2019 guesstimation of the camera industry. Things that will happen in 2019
with cameras.. camera manufacturers.. whatever. Kind of a continuation of the
2018 awards video that was basically a joke, but I was serious at the same time.
So let’s get started. 2018 was the year of gigantic lenses for
full-frame mirrorless. I think 2019 we’ll start to see smaller lenses for the
full-frame mirrorless cameras. There is definitely an improvement with some
technology. The fresnel lenses. The fresnel technology. Kind of a nanotube
whatever… it’s…. There are a few articles around about it. But basically Nikon has
their PF lenses. We’ll see more of those. I think Sony with their 400
millimeter is pretty compact for what it is. And their 24 as well. Basically we will
just see smaller lenses hopefully in 2019. I do think there will be a return
of dual card slots from the big two. Their.. For whatever reason, they were holding
those back from the mid-range cameras. Now, I don’t think that we’ll see dual card
slots in mid-range stuff moving forward, but maybe Sony and others will kind of
re-motivate Canon and Nikon to add those back in. Let’s hope. 2019 could be
the year of the global shutter. Basically that’s a sensor that can record or read
all of the information at once from the sensor. So with video situations you
won’t have rolling shutter, Basically there’ll be some type of memory buffer on
the sensor itself for every single recording location. It’ll save that
information all at once, and then I’ll push it to the processor. Hopefully that’s a
thing in 2019. I think there is the potential for that happening with Sony
especially. Maybe even Canon, who knows. My Canon predictions. I do think they will
release two EF-M cameras. Maybe even a third one. The first one will be the M5
revision, and then the M6. I hope or I think they’ll have a new
sensor inside and that will give a lot of more improvements with the cameras
just based on the sensor readout. Could even be a global shutter, you never know.
But I kind of doubt that. We could potentially see another lens for the EF-M
system. Especially if the new cameras they release have some type of weather
resistance. Maybe a super high-end M5 II… whatever… with slightly larger… There
could even be in body shake reduction. The thing so far with the EF-M cameras is
that Canon has basically been using that as a proving ground for their mirrorless
technology. Now that we have the new mount that might not be the case, but you
never know. Maybe they will release some stuff on the EF-M system first and then
we’ll get their new EOS R2 camera. So that’ll probably be really late in 2019
for a revised more advanced EOS R camera. But I do think that’s coming for
sure. I don’t think they would use Sony sensors because the dual pixel AF
technology is kind of inherent to how the sensor is designed. But you never
know, they might basically use their technology and have Sony make it. But I
really doubt that. Sigma is in an interesting position for 2019. They’ve
been really improving in the past with all their lenses. Definitely a lot of
fast impressive glass. It is huge, but they might potentially release some
smaller stuff moving forward, you never know. Basically they’re going to have the
L mount alliance cameras. If they have that and it’s potentially Foveon or most
likely the Foveon sensors. Which I think is kind of a hindrance. But you
never know. This new sensor might be decent. It really needs a good mixture of
photo and video to be widespread. Basically a good full system from Sigma
would be amazing. I’d really like to see that because you have completely fully
dedicated one manufacturer making the lenses and the camera. Definitely leads to
a really good video autofocus and all that. Canon for example, and Sony. But if Sigma were to have a full system all Sigma
stuff. That looks pretty exciting to me. Panasonic has their full frame coming up.
We all know that. I do think they’ll be relatively expensive. And they’ll be more
focused on photography than the video stuff because of course the screen
doesn’t look like it’s going to flip forward. 2019 there could be a GH6 camera. Maybe even early, but they might have moved all of those resources to their
full frame stuff. Hopefully not because a GH6 with really good video autofocus would be huge. You’ve got the great
stabilization and really good video autofocus, come on! That’s a huge missed
opportunity for them unless they just decided that micro four-thirds is no
longer viable. Who knows! Olympus… They’re probably gonna
go more photography. Just basically keep reiterating their micro four-thirds
stuff. Doesn’t look like they’re going larger sensor, which is fine. But
basically they have to really own that. Own it amazingly well. Better than
Panasonic. Just basically they’re gonna have larger cameras in their micro
four-thirds. But of course they… who knows. I don’t
know how that’s gonna go for them. Probably not too well. Pentax Ricoh… of course there’s the few cameras they’ve been announced that are coming out, but you’re
gonna probably have a K-3 version whatever. And it might be some type of
hybrid mirrorless. Where it’s gonna still use the K-mount, but not have any type
of mirror inside. That’s probably the only way they could go. I don’t know if
they are going to really release a new mirrorless mount. That be impressive, but
unlikely considering what resources they probably have. Ahh of course Theta. Maybe a new
version of that 360 D. camera. That’s probably one of their big sellers
these days. And the K-1… probably a silver version. Which I noticed on the Pentax
Forums. The big thing from Pentax I could see happening is a revised 645 with a
full mirrorless mount on it. So they can compete with Fujifilm.
If they don’t do that they’re probably going to be at risk of
being unappealing to those photographers. If they want smaller cameras, but who
knows. With Sony we might see some really big stuff like the global shutter come
out with their cameras. The A7s III for the most part. If that has a global shutter
that’s gonna be kind of game-changing for the video stuff. Because you won’t
have the rolling shutter issue with that camera. And it’ll most likely be amazing with
low light situations. Although they’ll probably up the price on it to $4000+ in that
case. Of course maybe they’ll even have the fully articulating screen, which
would be crazy for Sony. But you never know! That would be the thing I would
like to see most is that global shutter A7s III with the flip screen. So… I do
think we’ll see at least one aps-c camera. Maybe a lens or two in that
format. But we’ll see mostly full-frame stuff. More lenses for the most part.
With Nikon it’s kind of challenging to guesstimate what they’re going to do. Of
course we will get the lenses that they’re estimating to be released on the
roadmap. It was nice for them to release some type of roadmap. Because it gives
the Z owners an idea of what to expect. But body-wise I do think we could see
one… Potentially one Z camera from them. Although they will be most likely
releasing some revised versions of their DSLRs. I should have mentioned Canon too is
probably going to release some standard DSLRs. But with Nikon I could see them
releasing some type of sports version of the Z camera in 2019. With Fujifilm we’ll probably
see a lot of lens releases. But also the X-H2. I think that’s what it’s
called or will be called for the video stuff. Basically the X-T3 plus all of
the video stuff. The shake reduction in the camera and all those advanced video
features with improvements to all the software side. And more… more speed
and everything for that camera. Basically their flagship
for that whole line of camera. The potentially interesting thing with
Fujifilm moving forward into 2019 is that they
might be doing re-envisioning of their fully integrated cameras. The X100, X70. And we could potentially see a full-frame version of the X100 series. I don’t
think that’s going to happen. I think it’s extremely unlikely, but maybe
a fully re-envisioned X100 with a new lens that’s faster
with autofocus. The biggest release of 2019 will be from Yongnuo with their
fully integrated Android operated EF mount mirrorless camera with full cellular
connection 4G. Put a SIM card in there. You’ll have that full internet
connection everywhere. You’ll probably be able to connect a screen..
keyboard to it. Put your EF lenses on there. Do video. Do
photos. Edit things in the camera or connect it to the screen.
It’s gonna be amazing. It’s going to be groundbreaking..
revolutionary.. whatever words you want to use for that camera. That’s gonna be the
step forward from 2019. Anyways I hope you enjoyed this video. If you did, please
consider subscribing. Helps me out a lot. Likes and shares help out a lot as well. Thanks again! If we see more of those… two thh tw thh tdo… then there’s Panasonic… uahh… A7s III with the flip screen… so… let’s hope! That looks pretty exciting to me… With the mirrorless.

2 Replies to “2019 Camera Industry Predictions”

  • xmeda says:

    I don't think that K3 replacement is coming this year. Its too soon and unless they have some magicans available I only expect K70 successor or rather just KP mkII with slight changes 🙁
    They focused on FF too much and they are loosing APS-C ground quickly fading away from last shops.

  • Mel Enriquez says:

    It will be opposite. Lenses will be bigger as lens makers go for faster lenses and lessening optical abberations especially in the corners. The longer lenses will be way lighter though. Even aps-c lenses will be bigger as they put out better optics especially to get corner sharpness. Watch Fuji leads the charge! Let's face it, if you want the best IQ, the lenses will have to grow in size at this point in time for those who want the best in IQ.

     Canon can't do global shutter at this time at aps-c. They can't even do a decent 4k without heavy cropping or losing AF-C. If you can't do that, how can you process global shutter data?

    Dual card slots will only be in premium bodies, maybe starting at U$1,500 and up regardless if it is aps-c or 35FF. But then again, it depends on the company as how they position the product.

    There has always been global shutter. The question is will they be in 35FF or even aps-c, and whether IQ is impacted. Most likely MFT can go for that first. Smaller sensor is easier to implement global shutter. But anyone who does this must reckon with dynamic range, high ISO taking a hit. IF they can solve that or tame it, then well.

    Canon is way behind in tech. Sony has announced their sensors for sale. It's there for Canon to see – 60mp 4k-60p and high bitrates. I doubt if Canon has something like that. DPAF tech will have its own problems as we move on. I would not pine on it too much without R&D.

    Without a path to the R, the M series is likely a dead end. If Sony does release an a5100/a6000 replacement, not counting a possible a7000, Canon basically is out of the game. Fuji and Sony will take the aps-c market eventually.

    Foveon as over a decade of chance to prove itself. It won't and will never break open in the hands of Sigma. The reality is, there is better hope for competitive advantage in having global shutter and/or 8k and other tech. Sigma better stick with lenses and just use the traditional sensors if they want to still build cameras. If sigma/foveon can't even make stills viable, video will even be a bigger problem. Standard sensors now have dual base ISO making them even better at high ISO. Foveon suffers in high ISO past 400. With less anti aliasing filter or even none, and maybe even 3 base ISOs, i don't see the value of Foveon at this pointn in time. Best for Sigma to stick with what Panny or Sony sensors will offer.

    Panasonic's DFD AF is not as good. If they want to stick with this, best to move to PDAF or perfect their DFD tech. If they can't do it with their 35FF, it will be a major sore point. DFD is fine with stills, but in video it is way, way behind. I am confident Panasonic can get their DFD tech to be like PDAF. I am hoping they can do this in their next cameras. Their problem will be lenses in 35FF. They have to release compelling ones, or at least Sigma gets 3-5 of it to move things along. Forget about Leica lenses as most can't afford it. The 35FF MILC is already costly so Panny and Sigma better have 3-5 lenses that they can afford.

    Olympus prospects are dim. MFT is stuck. Yes, in some applications, it is fine, but in most others, 20mp is not enough, and the lack of high iso performance will limit it. I am not optimistic about Olympus getting out of this insistence on MFT.

    Pentax will be doing whaht it has been doing the past decade, and seems content with its fan base. It won't grow but as long as they put in money in it, it will remain. I won't predict it's death. Most don't care or even know they still exist.

    Nikon will be adjusting their strategy. going for the holy trinity of lenses seems good. But if Nikon and Canon wants to make traction they better release a mark 2 end of 2019. Correct those misteps of their ver 1.

    You forgot one important thing – the Sony A9-2. It will be released in the last part of 2019. It needs time for testing and adjustment before the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Together with that is a 500mm and/or 600mm lens. Most likely the A7S-3 will be released about the same time. But the A7S-3 is squaring off against Panasonic.

    But if Sony is poised to release an A9-2, will Canon and Nikon just sit by at let their aging 1DX2 and D5 lead the 2020 Olympics? They have to do something. Problem is, if they are just going to eye 20fps x 20-24mp, Sony will probably be pushing 30-32mp in with their A9-2! This is not counting 4k-60p with way better AF-C and other goodies (likely better connectivity and file transfers, A9-2 units working as a group and not separately being able to be programmed and operated remotely).

    Thus, Canon and Nikon is in a fix for their flagship. And this is not counting that Sony will just charge U$4,500 for their A9-2, vs U$6,500 typical for Canikon. Sony's R&D on MILC is paying off and a DSLR will not be able to muster 20fps unless you flip the mirror up. But if you do that, why do you need a mirror in the first place? And if the mirror is up, how can you see what you are shooting? This means you will likely go for an EVF. Going hybrid is going to be complicated and costly. MILC is the way to go. But with a weak digic processor they may need 2 x digic 8 to process that data and maintain AF-C. Canon is in a fix. Nikon might pull it off with a D6 or something like it since they will be using Sony sensors. It's now just up to their processor to keep up with the data. The way I see it, I don't think Canon's R&D is up to snuff and it can' be ready end of the year for such performance. The only way out for them is to outsource their sensor, maybe even the processor otherwise, their 1DX3 or MILC vesion of it will be anemic vs what Sony will release.

    Sony will implement global shutter in its large sensor in a different route. The use of stacked sensor is a way for that. For video, if they can pull it off, they can do 8k-24p or even 30p. The A7S-3 can either be a 16-24mp sensor with 4k-60p, maybe even 96p in 35FF! They have to solve the problem of overheating. There are 2-3 approaches to that. The larger battery with more capacity helps in lowering heat. Better body and heat sink is another. And a processor that is more efficient. If the processor uses 10nm fabrication or even 7nm will help lower power and heat. Again, is Canon working on these tech developments?

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