please like and comment on the video

below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them

in the future so if you look at any market in vet

angel you’ll see these numbers at the top and this is the book over round and

the book over around will always be hundreds over a hundred percent on the

back side in fact what I should do is just this is what you would normally see

on the back fair screen it will always be a hundred percent on the back side

and always under a hundred percent on the lay side this number up here

represents the chance of any one of these selections going on to win the

race so of course you know we’ve got a six run a race here there are six horses

one of those horses is going to win the race so there’s certainty that one of

those will win and therefore excluding dead heats of course and therefore the

book percentage is at 100% you’ll find the same in football in tennis and so on

all of the odds add up to 100% or nearly 100% if the market was perfect then

these figures up here would show 100% but you notice that there’s point eight

over on this side and point eight under on this side why is it different well

that’s the difference in spread between the back and lay prices so you can see

to 46 to 48 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.0 the difference in spread between those two

is creating a difference in spread at the top of the market and the spread is

the difference between one hundred and one point six minus ninety eight point

seven and that’s what we call spread the difference between those two two values

so the spreads can be applicable as a book percentage or it can be applicable

on on individual runner so you can see the spread here is to two percent

between 252 and 250 are now see there can you see the book has slipped

temporarily under a hundred percent when that happens people will go into the

market and correct that situation so the book always hunts 100 percent or as

close to 100 percent as possible to understand how this works if you go

to the dutching or the bookmaking area on betangel you can actually get an

understanding of exactly how a book is constructed so if we go to the dutching

area and we click on back you can see that that’s basically saying now you’ve

selected odds of 252 so sing out loud we’ve selected the back odds at 252 and

that represents 39.7% of the book now if you click another one the front two in

this market a 66% of the book so what is happening

here is the market is saying that it thinks that the from two runners here

have a 66% chance of going on to win the race and this is where dutching can be

particularly beneficial because if you’re betting into a book that’s close

to 100% and you use more than one selection then you’ve got a pretty good

chance of picking a winner and you’re not going to lose much money in the

spread so let’s select the third one you can see the front three in this market

have a ninety seven point one percent chance of winning this race one of these

front three is going to win basically is what the market is saying and if we

continue this process all the way down then you can see eventually adds up to

100% now a quick way of doing that you see if you just click on back you

can see boom there you go it adds up to 100% but of course you know if if we

select the lay price then we’ll get slightly different figures so in fact

you could select all of the labor Isis and you can see that it actually adds up

to just under 100 percent so in theory if you could back the entire book at the

current lay price you would make a little bit of money you’d make a one

percent margin but of course you’d have to wait for those orders to fill and in

the process of them filling some of them they move and so on and so forth so that

becomes a bit of an issue but we do have the options to back at the compact price

back at the current low price or back at an manually nominated price so let’s

have a look at what happens when you’re back at a nominated price first of all

I’m going to reset them to that level and then we’ll have a look and the menu

price this will allow you to understand how a market is formed because if

we look at the market and the price of the favorite starts to drift can you see

what happens to the book percentage the book percentage starts to slip under 100

percent so if this drifts out to odds of 276 this book percentage here is not a

state that can exist in the market arbitrage s will kick in cross-matching

will kick in when we’re a bit closer to the off and correct that situation so if

the price on something drifts then the price and something else must be coming

in so because the front three in this market take up one-third oh sorry

nearly they did all of the entire market I was looking at the front three and

thinking 3/10 one third anyway because these three take up the majority of the

market if the price and the favorit drifts and the price and something else

must come in so if we start adjusting the price here you can see if the

favorite goes out to 276 then the price of brother high must come in to around

3:15 or maybe it just comes in to around three point six and in fact it’s

something else that comes in a bit to help push that book percentage up so in

the way in which you see this this is showing you the way that if the odds go

out in one direction somewhere then the odds must change somewhere else and this

is the correlation that you see within the market this is why the market

meanders up and down at a variety of different prices within the market so

when you see this that’s what’s going on if the book if the price and something

on these front three one of these front three starts to move in one direction

another one will have to correct in the other direction so to be able to account

for that and the small of the book is we’re only in what buy there I’m saying

this small of the book the number of runners within the book so this is only

a six run erase the stronger that correlation is if you’ve got a twenty or

thirty run a race there’s a weak correlation there but the smaller the

field the more likely that you will see prices move in opposite directions but

by using the dutching and bookmaking tab you can actually identify and work out

what’s that possible correlation could be and what prices needs

to be hit at certain points in order for the price to react somewhere else so

let’s say that maybe in fact what happens is that the price on the

favorite shortens maybe the price on the favorite shortens to 225 you can see the

books at 109 percent which is unsustainable we know it hunts one

hundred percent so that would mean the price on these would have to drift so

let’s push these prices out a bit more you can see if the price on the favorite

comes in two to twenty four you can see the price and these other twos is going

to have to move a fair bit in order to compensate for that so playing around

with this on different markets at different prices will give you a really

good feel for how prices interact when you look at that in entire markets as

opposed to just one individual runner so probably the simplest way to understand

this is to look at a football match because there are only three outcomes in

a football match the book percentage is going to be quite tight and we can

actually examine what would happen at the start of the match you would make

sense to be able to comprehend what’s likely to happen in this match because

arsenal are playing away and if they don’t score then the odds on Arsenal

will drift and the price and the draw will come in but of course the price on

the draw coming in is what’s making Arsenal drift it’s not necessarily the

Arsenal they’re drifting it’s just that the draw is getting more likely and the

chance of national winners getting less likely now I know from my experience in

the markets that the price on this team I was going to pronounce it I’m not

going to attempt to do that will probably stay about the same will come

in if there’s no goal so it’s the drift on Arsenal it’s taking place and the

draw coming in but you can now correlate exactly what the impact on one would

have on the other so let’s say when were five minutes into the match and the draw

I sorry the price on Arsenal has drifted to – what is the price and the draw

going to be let’s have a look it’s going to be around 365 and if we get a little

bit later into the match and Arsenal the 214 what’s the price on the draw going

to be it will be around 325 and we only know that because we know that if

there’s no goal then the price on the home team isn’t gonna

if much but of course the draw and the price on Arsenal is going to have to

move in the other direction so around halftime

maybe the draw will come in to about 2.6 so I’ve just manually over typed that

and we can just drift the price on Arsenal out to understand what price

Arsenal would likely be if there was no goal by halftime they would be out to

about 256 and perhaps the price on the home team has come in slightly because

they have had a strong attacking phase then what you would find is that any

movement on then coming in would send the price on Arsenal out so if they’re

right they have a lot of shots on target and so on and so forth then the price

and Aston will move just that little bit more so anyhow hopefully that’s given

you an overview as to how prices correlate when you’re looking at them

not in isolation but it as a percentage of the entire book

© Copyright 2019. Tehai. All rights reserved. .

The last piece of the puzzle for me! 🙂

great video as always!

Interesting! u mean Stars can be seen even through heavy clouds.

#sausages

but the correction always happens simultaneously?

Is betfair trading something that can be picked up within a couple weeks? Considering learning to trade, and would love to pay for some of your products to get me there.

Kind regards, and thanks for all the content, Peter!

Hellow sir…I liked all your videos…I am commenting here to tell you that i posses immense skills in predicting horse races on consistent basis…i can easily beat the market…but as i am from india i can't place any bets here…i can prove my predictions are excellent…please give your contact information..

finding some real consistency now & I understand this in principle but to be honest with the edge I have I finding it difficult in how this would help pre determine a move, would you mind if I gave you a call this week?

All these numbers make me brain hurt. Its fun though 😀

Perfect explanation. Thank you Peter

Again, another great worked understanding example Pete, cheers !

This video has nothing to do with predicting how prices will move. A better title would be predicting how paint will dry using Betangel

Don’t see how this video helps to predict which way the odds will move at all.

As others hve pointed out, this video has no information whatsoever, on predicting moves.

thank you for video.

I’m using bet angel trail version I’m unable to view market overview volume for market nothing