September 18, 2019 15

Betfair Trading – Predicting where prices will move – Peter Webb: Bet Angel

Betfair Trading – Predicting where prices will move – Peter Webb: Bet Angel


please like and comment on the video
below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them
in the future so if you look at any market in vet
angel you’ll see these numbers at the top and this is the book over round and
the book over around will always be hundreds over a hundred percent on the
back side in fact what I should do is just this is what you would normally see
on the back fair screen it will always be a hundred percent on the back side
and always under a hundred percent on the lay side this number up here
represents the chance of any one of these selections going on to win the
race so of course you know we’ve got a six run a race here there are six horses
one of those horses is going to win the race so there’s certainty that one of
those will win and therefore excluding dead heats of course and therefore the
book percentage is at 100% you’ll find the same in football in tennis and so on
all of the odds add up to 100% or nearly 100% if the market was perfect then
these figures up here would show 100% but you notice that there’s point eight
over on this side and point eight under on this side why is it different well
that’s the difference in spread between the back and lay prices so you can see
to 46 to 48 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.0 the difference in spread between those two
is creating a difference in spread at the top of the market and the spread is
the difference between one hundred and one point six minus ninety eight point
seven and that’s what we call spread the difference between those two two values
so the spreads can be applicable as a book percentage or it can be applicable
on on individual runner so you can see the spread here is to two percent
between 252 and 250 are now see there can you see the book has slipped
temporarily under a hundred percent when that happens people will go into the
market and correct that situation so the book always hunts 100 percent or as
close to 100 percent as possible to understand how this works if you go
to the dutching or the bookmaking area on betangel you can actually get an
understanding of exactly how a book is constructed so if we go to the dutching
area and we click on back you can see that that’s basically saying now you’ve
selected odds of 252 so sing out loud we’ve selected the back odds at 252 and
that represents 39.7% of the book now if you click another one the front two in
this market a 66% of the book so what is happening
here is the market is saying that it thinks that the from two runners here
have a 66% chance of going on to win the race and this is where dutching can be
particularly beneficial because if you’re betting into a book that’s close
to 100% and you use more than one selection then you’ve got a pretty good
chance of picking a winner and you’re not going to lose much money in the
spread so let’s select the third one you can see the front three in this market
have a ninety seven point one percent chance of winning this race one of these
front three is going to win basically is what the market is saying and if we
continue this process all the way down then you can see eventually adds up to
100% now a quick way of doing that you see if you just click on back you
can see boom there you go it adds up to 100% but of course you know if if we
select the lay price then we’ll get slightly different figures so in fact
you could select all of the labor Isis and you can see that it actually adds up
to just under 100 percent so in theory if you could back the entire book at the
current lay price you would make a little bit of money you’d make a one
percent margin but of course you’d have to wait for those orders to fill and in
the process of them filling some of them they move and so on and so forth so that
becomes a bit of an issue but we do have the options to back at the compact price
back at the current low price or back at an manually nominated price so let’s
have a look at what happens when you’re back at a nominated price first of all
I’m going to reset them to that level and then we’ll have a look and the menu
price this will allow you to understand how a market is formed because if
we look at the market and the price of the favorite starts to drift can you see
what happens to the book percentage the book percentage starts to slip under 100
percent so if this drifts out to odds of 276 this book percentage here is not a
state that can exist in the market arbitrage s will kick in cross-matching
will kick in when we’re a bit closer to the off and correct that situation so if
the price on something drifts then the price and something else must be coming
in so because the front three in this market take up one-third oh sorry
nearly they did all of the entire market I was looking at the front three and
thinking 3/10 one third anyway because these three take up the majority of the
market if the price and the favorit drifts and the price and something else
must come in so if we start adjusting the price here you can see if the
favorite goes out to 276 then the price of brother high must come in to around
3:15 or maybe it just comes in to around three point six and in fact it’s
something else that comes in a bit to help push that book percentage up so in
the way in which you see this this is showing you the way that if the odds go
out in one direction somewhere then the odds must change somewhere else and this
is the correlation that you see within the market this is why the market
meanders up and down at a variety of different prices within the market so
when you see this that’s what’s going on if the book if the price and something
on these front three one of these front three starts to move in one direction
another one will have to correct in the other direction so to be able to account
for that and the small of the book is we’re only in what buy there I’m saying
this small of the book the number of runners within the book so this is only
a six run erase the stronger that correlation is if you’ve got a twenty or
thirty run a race there’s a weak correlation there but the smaller the
field the more likely that you will see prices move in opposite directions but
by using the dutching and bookmaking tab you can actually identify and work out
what’s that possible correlation could be and what prices needs
to be hit at certain points in order for the price to react somewhere else so
let’s say that maybe in fact what happens is that the price on the
favorite shortens maybe the price on the favorite shortens to 225 you can see the
books at 109 percent which is unsustainable we know it hunts one
hundred percent so that would mean the price on these would have to drift so
let’s push these prices out a bit more you can see if the price on the favorite
comes in two to twenty four you can see the price and these other twos is going
to have to move a fair bit in order to compensate for that so playing around
with this on different markets at different prices will give you a really
good feel for how prices interact when you look at that in entire markets as
opposed to just one individual runner so probably the simplest way to understand
this is to look at a football match because there are only three outcomes in
a football match the book percentage is going to be quite tight and we can
actually examine what would happen at the start of the match you would make
sense to be able to comprehend what’s likely to happen in this match because
arsenal are playing away and if they don’t score then the odds on Arsenal
will drift and the price and the draw will come in but of course the price on
the draw coming in is what’s making Arsenal drift it’s not necessarily the
Arsenal they’re drifting it’s just that the draw is getting more likely and the
chance of national winners getting less likely now I know from my experience in
the markets that the price on this team I was going to pronounce it I’m not
going to attempt to do that will probably stay about the same will come
in if there’s no goal so it’s the drift on Arsenal it’s taking place and the
draw coming in but you can now correlate exactly what the impact on one would
have on the other so let’s say when were five minutes into the match and the draw
I sorry the price on Arsenal has drifted to – what is the price and the draw
going to be let’s have a look it’s going to be around 365 and if we get a little
bit later into the match and Arsenal the 214 what’s the price on the draw going
to be it will be around 325 and we only know that because we know that if
there’s no goal then the price on the home team isn’t gonna
if much but of course the draw and the price on Arsenal is going to have to
move in the other direction so around halftime
maybe the draw will come in to about 2.6 so I’ve just manually over typed that
and we can just drift the price on Arsenal out to understand what price
Arsenal would likely be if there was no goal by halftime they would be out to
about 256 and perhaps the price on the home team has come in slightly because
they have had a strong attacking phase then what you would find is that any
movement on then coming in would send the price on Arsenal out so if they’re
right they have a lot of shots on target and so on and so forth then the price
and Aston will move just that little bit more so anyhow hopefully that’s given
you an overview as to how prices correlate when you’re looking at them
not in isolation but it as a percentage of the entire book

15 Replies to “Betfair Trading – Predicting where prices will move – Peter Webb: Bet Angel”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Recent Posts
Recent Comments
Tags
© Copyright 2019. Tehai. All rights reserved. .